Value-Stock-Plus

Informed Investing!

Investing is most intelligent when it is most businesslike - Benjamin Graham (1894-1976)

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Value-Stock-Plus stands at No. 50 in the list of Top 100 Finance Blogs  by ValueWiki

Recognised by The Economic Times as one of the most popular financial blog

Updated! Compilation on Warren Buffett, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala & Charlie Munger
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Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Permanent Value: The Teachings of Warren Buffett

Opening remarks by Mr. Buffett

Everyone has the potential to achieve their dreams. The point is to get out of each of us what we are capable of producing. I will invite you to play a game. Suppose that when this class ends, you have one hour to pick a classmate that you will own 10% of his or her earnings for the rest of their life. Besides picking the one with the richest father (laughter ) you would choose the person who is most effective. I would predict that you would not necessarily pick the student with the best grades or highest IQ. Instead, you would look for someone with the most integrity and intelligence. Think about the person that has a 300 horsepower motor and operates at 300hp and compare that person to someone who has a 400hp motor but operates at 150hp. You would pick the 300hp everyday.

My point is to suggest that you should become an effective human being...the chains of habit are too light to feel until they are too heavy to break!

Click here for the full interview.

Editor's Note: The above transcript is the courtesy of Mr. Sham Gad, who had a privilege to meet Mr. Buffett in Omaha, Nebraska along with 50 of his fellow MBA classmates. He says "As expected, the Sage of Omaha was full of humor while dispensing his unique, masterful thoughts on business and life."

Enjoy the article!

Labels: Compilation, Warren Buffett

Posted by toughiee at 8:09 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

India Strategy: Road to 50,000

Conclusion: One way of looking at market valuations is to find out the number of years it could take the market to reach a certain level. In our base case, the BSE Sensex (used as a market proxy) could take almost 13 years to breach 50,000 from its current level. If the assumptions are optimistic, the period to 50K shrinks to under ten years.

What's New: The critical success factors for returns and hence the period to reach 50K include some obvious ones such as GDP growth, interest rates, the inflation rate and the success of India’s infrastructure roll-out. A less obvious but increasingly accepted factor is global risk appetite, which has a bearing on the expected rate of return and hence the actual rate of return. Some of the least obvious factors include the pace at which Indian companies globalize, the rate of wage increases, the investment rate, the estimated asset life in the books of accounts and capital structure alterations.

Implications: That the long-term return implied by the BSE Sensex using our residual income model is 11% under the most probable outcome is not a source for comfort since this return may not be able to compensate investors for the risks involved in investing in India. However, this return appears consistent with the current low levels of risk appetite still making Indian equities attractive in the context of current high levels of risk love. If things turn for the worse, the probability of which appears to be higher than usual, long-term returns could end by being just a tad better than the yield offered by government long bonds. For investors to be compensated with the return and risk premium they deserve (which we think is 14% given the risks associated with Indian equities), the critical success factors listed above may have to exceed our most bullish assumptions over the coming years.

Click here to download the report.

Labels: Market Strategy

Posted by toughiee at 7:55 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Random Readings

Random Readings:

  • Corus Board recommends Tata offer to shareholders
  • Tata Steel wins Corus auction with $12 bn offer
  • Corus gives Tata Europe footprint, global scale: Ratan Tata
  • S&P raises ratings to investment gradehttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/images/spacer.gif
  • GDP growth rate revised to 9% for 2005-06
  • Credit Policy Reports
  • Repo rate hike not to impact growth: FMhttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/images/spacer.gif

Additional Reports:

  • Paramount Communication – PL
  • Union Bank of India – PL
  • Petronet LNG - ASKRJ

Off-Topic Readings:

  • Windows Vista finally logs in to India

Parting Thought:

  • I put heavy weight on certainty. It's not risky to buy securities at a fraction of what they're worth. – Warren Buffett

Labels: Random Readings

Posted by toughiee at 6:20 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Monday, January 29, 2007

Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts by Ken Fisher

The frailty of forecasting.

Some days it seems as if the world is divided into two groups, those who forecast that the DJIA will soar to 36,000 very soon and those who forecast, with equal confidence, that it will plummet to 3,600. We argue that forecasters often exaggerate the reliability of their forecasts, and trace this exaggeration to the illusion of validity.

“People are prone to experience much confidence in highly fallible judgment, a phenomenon that may be termed the illusion of validity,” write Kahneman and Tversky [1973]. “Like other perceptual and judgmental errors, the illusion of validity persists even when its illusionary character is recognized” (p. 249).

We discuss five cognitive biases that underlie the illusion of validity:

  • Overconfidence,
  • Confirmation
  • Representativeness
  • Anchoring &
  • Hindsight.

We use forecasts based on P/E ratios and dividend yields to illustrate the biases and offer remedies.

  • Click here to download the report

Editor’s Note:

This is an award winning research paper by Kenneth L. Fisher, which discusses futility of market forecasts. It was published in Fall 2000 issue of The Journal of Portfolio Management.

Please note that the figures published in this report are of the U.S. markets but the insights provided in it are applicable to every capital market.

Labels: Kenneth Fisher

Posted by toughiee at 9:09 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Random Readings

Random Readings:

  • Global markets play piper to Indian stocks
  • EPF interest rate cut deferred, no investment in stocks
  • Real estate funds are now set to rival FII flows
  • Tata, CSN battle set for grand finale
  • Govt clears Rs 22,000 cr fertiliser subsidy
  • Like to see Indian mkts cool off a little: Morgan Stanley
  • Volatility of markets to continue: Prabhudas Lilladher
  • No change likely in Fed's policy: HSBC
  • What makes mid-cap funds tick
  • Think before you invest!
  • Sell in Feb and go away
  • 8% growth sustainable: Economists

Additional Reports:
  • Technical Analysis – MS
  • IPOs 2006 A Snapshot – EC
Off-Topic Readings:
  • ‘This world’ looks beyond outsourcing to India
Parting Thought:
  • If the business does well, the stock eventually follows. – Warren Buffett

Labels: Random Readings

Posted by toughiee at 8:38 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Investment Nuggets - Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore is widely acclaimed as the greatest and one of the most successful stock traders on Wall Street. Known by his nickname, "The Boy Plunger", he is said to have gone short (selling a stock that one does not own hoping to buy at a lower price) on several stocks in the 1929 stock market crash and made $100 million. He had also done something similar in the stock market crash of 1907. The book, Reminscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, a mandatory read for every stock trader is said to be loosely modelled on the life and trading habits of Jesse Livermore.

"There is only one side to the stock market... not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock market speculation."

"The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes!"

"Every stock is like a human being: It has a personality, a distinctive personality. Aggressive, reserved, hyper, high-strung, volatile, boring, direct, logical, predictable, unpredictable. I often studied stocks like I would study people; after a while their reactions to certain circumstances become more predictable."

"Wall Street never changes. The pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes because human nature never changes."

"After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? By sitting tight!"

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: Greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."

"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."

"Don't take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don't be an impatient trader."

Labels: Jesse Livermore

Posted by toughiee at 9:59 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Sensex to touch 17,000 in CY07: ICICI Securities

We expect mega India investment story to unfold in CY07 as plans in road/ power infrastructure and real estate/SEZ/retail investments gather pace. Investment growth is expected to contribute well over half to GDP growth while its impact on jobs and incomes would continue to drive consumption. We believe global growth and liquidity profile remains conducive to emerging market investments and expect portfolio inflows to continue unless expected moderation in global growth turns into a recession. Risks for India growth story stem from any delays in execution of large project pipeline that creates worries over earnings growth. On the positive, lower commodity prices will benefit sectors like Auto, Aviation & Oil Marketing and also shave off 50-70bps from inflation over CY07. In a scenario of sustained growth, we expect Sensex to reach 17000 by December’07 at a stable 17x one year forward PE multiple assuming a 20% earnings growth.

Click here to download the report.

Labels: Market Strategy

Posted by toughiee at 4:12 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

What inflation numbers indicate?

by Chandrakant Sampat

I believe that money has now shifted from low velocity to high velocity; velocity is going to decide what inflation will be. Inflation rates are increasing and will continue to increase. Asset inflation across all classes is already rampant.

Peter Drucker wrote in his book “The Frontiers of Management”: “By now we know, as Schumpeter knew fifty years ago, that every one of these Keynesian answers is the wrong answer. At least they are valid only for special cases and within fairly narrow ranges. Take, for instance, Keynes’s key theorem; that monetary events – government deficits, interest rates, credit volume, and volume of money in circulation – determine demand and with it economic conditions. This assumes, as Keynes himself stressed, that the turnover velocity of money is constant and not capable of being changed over the short term by individuals or firms. Schumpeter pointed out fifty years ago that all evidence negates this assumption. And indeed, whenever tried, Keynesian economic policies, whether in the original Keynesian or in the modified Friedman version, have been defeated by the microeconomy of business and individuals, unpredictably and without warning, changing the turnover velocity of money almost overnight.”

Click here for the full story.

Additional Readings:
  • Guruspeak: With markets getting heady, it’s time to revisit what investment gurus have taught us (Must Read!)

Labels: Chandrakant Sampat

Posted by toughiee at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Saturday, January 27, 2007

India at Davos: Resources from the World Bank

The theme of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland (January 24-28) is "The Shifting Power Equation," as emerging economies are increasingly becoming bigger players in the world arena. India will figure prominently in several of the planned discussions.

Here’s an overview of World Bank research on India-related issues that the forum will cover:

  • Economics: New Drivers
  • Business: Leading in a Connected World
  • Managing India's Youthful Tide
  • The City: Managing Rapid Urbanization in Developing Economies
  • Empowering Individuals

Labels: WEF

Posted by toughiee at 7:37 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

'Best Advice I Ever Got.' - Warren Buffett

You’re right not because others agree with you, but because your facts are right.

“I had two mentors: my dad, Howard Buffett, and Ben Graham. Here were these two guys who I revered and who over the years gave me tons of good advice. But when I think about what they said to me, the truth is, the first thing that comes to mind is bad advice.

“I was not quite 21 when this happened, in 1951, and just getting out of business school at Columbia. I had just taken Ben’s class there–and I was the most interested student you ever saw. I wanted to work for Ben at Graham-Newman Corp., and I had famously gone to him and offered to work for nothing. He said no.

“But I still was determined to go into the securities business, and that’s where Ben and my dad gave me the bad advice. They both thought it was a bad time to start. One thing on their minds was that the Dow Jones industrials had been above 200 all year, and yet there had never been a year when it didn’t sell below 200. So they both said, ‘You’ll do fine, but this is not a good time to start.’

“Now there’s one thing that may have influenced my dad, and maybe Ben too. I was so immature. I was not only young-looking, I was young-acting. I was skinny. My hair looked awful. Maybe their advice was their polite way of saying that before I started selling stocks, I needed to mature a little, or I wasn’t going to be successful. But they didn’t say that to me; they said the other. Anyway, I didn’t pay any attention. I went back to Omaha and started selling securities at my dad’s firm, Buffett Falk.

“My dad was a totally independent thinker. I suppose the fact that he was has influenced my own thinking some when it comes to buying stocks. Ben instructed me some there too. He said, ‘You’re neither right nor wrong because others agree with you. You’re right because your facts and reasoning are right.’

“Now, Ben–I started learning from him when I read his books on investing at the University of Nebraska. I had tried all kinds of investing up to then, but what he said, particularly in The Intelligent Investor, just lifted the scales from my eyes–things like ‘margin of safety’ and how to use ‘Mr. Market’ rather than letting him use you. I then went to Columbia just to take his class and later got that turndown when I asked him for a job. But I kept thinking about that idea when I went back to Omaha. I kept trying to sell Ben stocks and pestering him, sort of. And finally one day in 1954 I got a letter from him saying something to the effect of the next time you’re in New York, I’d like to talk to you about something. I was elated! And I made a point of getting to New York immediately.

“I went to work for Ben in August 1954, without ever having asked what my salary would be. It turned out to be $12,000, plus the next year I got a $2,000 bonus. I worked for both parts of the business: Graham- Newman was a regulated investment company, and Newman & Graham Ltd. was what we’d today call a hedge fund. But together they ran only $12 million!

“Walter Schloss and I–though he left before long to start a hedge fund–worked together in a little room. We had a lot of fun with each other, plus we kept poring through the manuals, looking for cheap stocks. We never went out to visit any companies. Ben thought that would be cheating. And when we found something terrific, Ben would put 50,000 bucks into it.

“By early 1956, Ben was planning to leave the firm to go to California. And I had already decided by then to go back to Omaha. I had a terrible time telling Ben about that: I’d go into his office and come back, and then go in and not do it, for a really long time. But his reaction was kind of the same as my dad would have had: whatever’s best for you.

“I had $9,800 at the end of 1950, and by 1956 I had $150,000. I figured with that I could live like a king. And I didn’t know what I was going to do in Omaha. Maybe go to law school. I did not have a plan. I certainly didn’t know I was going to start an investing partnership. But then a couple of months later, seven people wanted me to invest their money for them, and a partnership was the way to do it. And that began it all.”

Source: Fortune

Labels: Warren Buffett

Posted by toughiee at 6:26 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

The battle of the bourses

Legend has it that in the late eighties, N J Pherwani, the chairman of the Unit Trust of India and the original ‘Big Bull’ of the bourses had approached the Bombay Stock Exchange, seeking membership of the bourse for a relation of his. For reasons not clear, this request was not entertained leaving the Big Bull snorting. It is also said that ICICI and IDBI, the leading financial institutions at that time, had also sought membership on the exchange. But the BSE governing board was not too keen to allow entry to institutions, fearing they would become powerful than the broking community. These instances, among others, had sown the seeds for a first national stock exchange promoted by financial institutions, that besides reaching out to investors across the country, would also break the ‘Club culture’ that the BSE was beginning to promote.

Click here for the full story

Labels: BSE-NSE

Posted by toughiee at 11:37 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Random Readings

Random Readings:

  • 'India poised for 10% growth': President Kalam
  • ‘8-9% growth didn’t happen because some kind god smiled at us’: Finance Miniter
  • India is world’s number two in intangible value
  • US and us: Similar, yet different!
  • Hotels: Incredible India!
  • Investing: The top down approach
  • India-China 'threat' debated at WEF
  • Infrastructure Investments The Race To Build
  • 8% growth for India till 2020: Goldman Sachs
  • Good numbers spur feel good factor: Deven Choksey
  • Investors prefer India to China: Merrill Lynch
  • Tata-CSN battle enters final round
  • Q3 numbers: New private banks rock

Additional Reports:

  • India Property Part A – CLSA
  • India Property Part B – CLSA
  • Power Sector - EC

Off-Topic Readings:

  • Why China will remain a giant
  • Poverty 'dramatically reduced' in India: ILO

Parting Thought:

  • To be successful, you should concentrate on the world of companies, not arcane accounting mathematics. – Warren Buffett

Labels: Random Readings

Posted by toughiee at 11:33 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

India’s Rising Growth Potential - Goldman Sachs

India’s Rising Growth Potential
  • India’s high growth rate since 2003 represents a structural increase rather than simply a cyclical upturn. We project India’s potential or sustainable growth rate at about 8% until 2020.
  • The recent growth spurt was achieved primarily through a surge in productivity, which we believe can be sustained.
  • India is well-positioned to reap the benefits of favorable demographics, including an ‘urbanization bonus’, and a further rise in capital accumulation, in part from an upsurge in foreign direct investment.
  • The risks to growth are: political risk, including a rise in protectionism; supply-side constraints, including business climate, education, and labor market reforms; and environmental degradation.
  • Our assessment suggests that India’s influence on the world economy will be bigger and quicker than implied in our previously published BRICs research.
  • Click here to download the report.

Source: Global Economics Paper No: 152 published by Economic Research from the GS Institutional Portal

More about BRICs by Goldman Sachs:

  • The BRICs Dream: Web Tour - Report published in 2006
  • Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050 - Report published in 2003

Other Information on BRICs:

  • BRIC – The Major Issues - Danske Bank (2006)
  • The BRIC countries - National Bank of Denmark (2006)
  • A pile of BRICs or Asian CHIKS? - Stratton Street Capital LLP. (2006)
  • BRICS+G - A Dialogue About Sustainability And Growth In Six Countries - GTZ (2005)

Posted by toughiee at 5:18 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Stockmarket: Cause and Effect

Why Indian stockmarkets haven’t fussed about the crash in industrial commodities

Commodity prices are crashing all over: the Reuters / Jefferies CRB index of 19 commodities fell by 6.5 per cent this year, on top of a 7.4-per cent correction in 2006. Crude oil prices went down as low as $51 a barrel recently, as did industrial metals prices. Brent crude has fallen about 13 per cent this year, while copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have dropped by 10 per cent. Zinc, among the major gainers last year, has fallen by 12 per cent.

Click here for the full story

Posted by toughiee at 11:53 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Monday, January 22, 2007

Data, data everywhere, but not a thought to think

Deluge of data on the market, but does the investor gain?

Of all journalists, it is the ones on business news channels who amaze me the most. Somehow, they always seem to know why the stock market moved the way it did on any given day, or what may be expected, going ahead. Keeping track of so much, to be able to give the viewers a coherent explanation on a daily basis, must be tough. Or is it?

Click here for the full story.

Posted by toughiee at 1:54 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Random Readings

Random Readings:
  • RIL posts highest ever quarterly results
  • India should permit direct entry for hedge funds
  • Punters picking high P/E cement stocks
  • 'India more upbeat than China'
  • Brokers bullish on Great Offshore, Prajay Engineers, Mastek
  • Can India sustain 9% growth?
  • The 5 hottest lifestyle stocks
  • Aban Offshore: Growth in the offing?
  • India on the radar as never before: Nath
  • FDI inflows to touch $15 bn, says Nath
  • Indian real estate market to touch $100 bn in a decade
  • Dark horses in the midcap space
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank: No sharp run up from here
  • Brokers bullish on L&T, Bajaj Auto, TCS, Praj Ind
Off-Topic Readings:
  • India high on Stanford Varsity radar
  • Brazil, India most expensive to buy an iPod
  • Amazing story of Goldman Sachs
Parting Thought:
  • The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. - Warren Buffett

Labels: Random Readings

Posted by toughiee at 6:58 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Top fund manager remains India bull

With the Sensex hitting a new high of 14,129, India has begun the year well. Jon Thorn explains why he thinks that is set to continue.

Jon Thorn is the managing director of the Hong Kong-based India Capital Fund, a $260 million fund dedicated to Indian equities, as well as the $60 million India Institutional Fund, a segregated account for American endowments. The fund began in 1994 as a small-cap India play seeded by a George Soros fund, but was relaunched in 2001 to include companies of any size.

Click here for the full story.

Posted by toughiee at 12:24 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Random Readings

Random Readings:
  • ‘Every bull-run has its own irrational sector, this one’s got real estate’
  • FIIs see Indian equity as stable
  • Institutions may get to sell short this year: Sebi
  • Hot capital: Global liquidity is chasing growth
  • Indian growth at 9% uncertain: Moodys'
  • Uninterrupted investment into EMs in '07: Morgan Stanley
  • Ample liquidity in system: SBI Chairman
Off-Topic Readings:
  • Mumbai among costliest cities
  • Indian court raps pesky tele-marketers, imposes heavy fine
Parting Thought:
  • It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. - Warren Buffett

Labels: Random Readings

Posted by toughiee at 9:18 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Citigroup cautious on emerging stocks

Says developed markets like U.S., Europe and Japan will outperform emerging ones in 2007, warns of correction for India and China.
Singapore -- Citigroup's global equity strategist said Tuesday that developed markets such as the United States, Europe and Japan would outperform emerging markets this year, and warned that rallies in India and China could falter. Citibank's Ajay Kapur said he expects equity markets in the United States, Japan and Europe to rally 10 to 15 percent in 2007, thanks to healthy corporate earnings and strong economic growth coupled with low inflation. By contrast, emerging markets - which outperformed last year - now appear overvalued, with both India and China at risk of a correction. "When there are elevated levels of sentiment, any policy error, any mistake obviously hurts [markets] that are most inflated," Kapur told a news conference organized by Citibank's private bank. Click here for the full story.
Recommended Reading:
  • The Asia Investigator - Citigroup Value to Regain the Upper Hand from Momentum in 2007

Posted by toughiee at 7:21 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Monday, January 15, 2007

Day Trader's Keyboard - Humor

LOL!
(Click on the image for clearer view!)

Posted by toughiee at 9:34 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Companies with Jhunjhunwala's stake - ET

(Click on the image for clearer view!)

Posted by toughiee at 7:52 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Random Readings

Random Readings:
  • The momentum returns ...
  • ... but for how long?
  • English News Channel: Tune in to the news
  • 'We will reduce interest costs': Orchid Chemicals
  • Cap goods have lots of upside: Raamdeo Agrawal
  • Mkts not risky in terms of fundamentals: Experts
  • We're bullish on FMCG, infra, banks: Pictet Asia
  • Budget likely to be market-friendly: JP Morgan Chase
  • Q3: Pharma, cement, metals favourites: Brics Sec
  • India Inc’s retail play gets big & real
  • Sebi may allow institutional short-selling
  • Brokers bullish on Bharti Airtel, KS Oils, RIL
  • Investment Nuggets - Walter Schloss
  • Swim with contra-tides this year- The economic & business landscape is set to transform radically over the next 5 years. Investors need to change their mindsets to capitalise on changing market trends
Additional Reports:
  • Telecom - UBS
  • Federal Bank - IISL
  • Godrej Inds - SSKI
  • L&T - HSBC
Off-Topic Readings:
  • How difficult is the maths?
Parting Thought:
  • Never ask the barber if you need a haircut. - Warren Buffett

Labels: Random Readings

Posted by toughiee at 7:45 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Wireless Wonder: India's Sunil Mittal - FORTUNE

India's Sunil Mittal has built a mobile-phone empire by turning outsourcing on its head. Now he's plotting a retail revolution with a new partner - Wal-Mart.

As the number of his countrymen signing up for mobile-phone service snowballed in 2003, Sunil Mittal, founder and CEO of India's leading wireless company, had a troubling epiphany.

Subscribers were doubling every year, putting India on track to overtake China as the world's hottest mobile market. With a 20 percen share, Mittal's firm, Bharti Tele-Ventures, held a slender lead in a crowded field that included rivals backed by deep-pocket Indian conglomerates such as Tata and Reliance.

To stay out front, Bharti would have to ramp up from three million subscribers to more than 25 million within a few years. But how? The more he pondered, the more Mittal doubted his ability to build out a network fast enough to keep pace with all that growth.

Click here for the full article.

Posted by toughiee at 7:37 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Wall Street Journal on Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Indian Mogul Rises to Status Of Money Icon Hunt for Undervalued Now Goes to the Mall; Like Warren Buffett
by Diya Gullapalli - Wall Street Journal - January 13, 2007 (Direct Link)

Mumbai, India -- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, often referred to as "India's Warren Buffett," built his fortune over the past 20 years by shopping for undervalued local companies. Now he's shopping for shopping malls.

He is keen on the malls, and the consumer goods flying off the shelves there. There is "a big explosion of purchases in India," especially in areas like construction and jewelry, he said recently, sitting in his 15th-floor office here in Mumbai, India's financial capital, his back to the Arabian Sea just beyond the window.Mr. Jhunjhunwala, a chain-smoking, diamond-ring-wearing 46-year-old money manager, is idolized in India by millions of small investors who dream of following in his footsteps. He is a fixture on Indian television, talking up his bull-market views, and on the lecture circuit -- addressing groups like the "Millennium Mams," an organization targeting housewives who want to learn about business. He makes headlines when buying 2% of a company's shares, sits on 10 boards of directors, and regularly finds fellow investors chasing his stock picks.

His investments map the arc of India's recent economic emergence. The son of a tax commissioner, Mr. Jhunjhunwala says he toyed with becoming a pilot but went into accounting instead. In the mid-1980s, he began playing the market with 5,000 rupees (just over $100 at today's exchange rates), and never looked back. One of his first investments: Tata Tea Ltd., which quickly took off. (Years later, Tata Tea would acquire British tea giant Tetley.) He subsequently moved into mining, where he made his first million rupees in iron-ore exporter Sesa Goa.

In this nation of castes and sometimes rigid tradition that can limit social and economic mobility, his is a relatively unusual story of self-created wealth. Today, he has amassed a $700 million fortune. While that pales in comparison with the real Buffetts of the world, it's a fortune in a country where average annual income is measured in hundreds of dollars. Mr. Buffett's fortune has been valued at more than $40 billion, though he is giving away big chunks of that to charity. Like India's stock market itself, Mr. Jhunjhunwala has had his share of setbacks. Last year, the Securities and Exchange Board of India cleared him and his wife in an investigation into stock-price manipulation. The case dealt with how some big trades from his firm a few years ago affected stock prices.

Mr. Jhunjhunwala's colleague, Utpal Sheth, says they are pleased with the outcome of the case and found regulators "sensible and fair." Mr. Jhunjhunwala certainly isn't the only Indian investor to benefit from the run-up in local markets in recent years. Many other value investors there have also become famous for spotting cheap stocks. And last May, when the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, plunged amid a sharp retreat in emerging-markets stocks world-wide, Mr. Jhunjhunwala's portfolio tumbled along with it. He endured another big hit just a few weeks ago, when a dramatic downturn in Thailand's stock market rippled through India's market as well. Local newspapers blared headlines like "Blood Baht in Thai markets," a reference to a decline in Thailand's currency, the baht. India's shares fell 3% that day. The next day Mr. Jhunjhunwala, sitting in front of five computer screens in his office in the Nariman Point financial district, scribbled trades in a small notebook and barked orders to his assistants in Hindi to fetch tea and sell some shares.

"The market is on the weaker side today," Mr. Jhunjhunwala muttered -- an understatement -- sitting with his collared shirt untucked.

As the day unfolded, he found time to eat an elaborate Indian lunch and chat with a friend about bringing a bottle of whiskey that weekend to his house in the hills outside of Mumbai, formerly Bombay, which features a karaoke studio and gym. In his office, his assistants serve drinks on coasters printed with a quote stressing the importance of integrity and hard work that is attributed to John Bogle, Vanguard Group's founder. Displayed nearby are images of Hindu deities, as well as sketches of billionaires Mr. Buffett and George Soros. He built his private investment company, Rare Enterprises (the name merges the "Ra" from his first name with "Re" from his wife's name, Rekha), by investing mostly in smaller Indian stocks. His rise has differed from other Indian investing icons who made their names through speculation and fraud during the technology bubble of the 1990s.

One of his best recent moves was selling part of his stake in Indian rating company Crisil Ltd. to McGraw-Hill Cos.' Standard & Poor's Corp. for more than four times what he bought it for. S&P acquired a majority stake in the company last year. These days he is buying land in the south India city of Secunderabad, where he plans to build shopping malls, and backs private equity and other investments in a dredging firm, a radio station, a school and a security company.

"In Mumbai, he's very widely known" as a "bit of a blunt guy," says Pradeep Dokania, head of the global private-client group for DSP Merrill Lynch. However, "sometimes people may feel he's overconfident" about the markets. So far, his optimism has paid off. The Sensex has quadrupled in the past five years, and such growth is attracting foreigners. In just the past week, New York Stock Exchange parent NYSE Group Inc. and others said that they are buying a stake in India's National Stock Exchange.

And Mr. Jhunjhunwala is sticking to his guns. By 2010, he predicts India's gross domestic product growth will have hit 10% for at least one year. In a slide show that outlines his investment philosophies, he says: The bull market in India "will really need God's wrath for it to be reversed prematurely."

Write to Diya Gullapalli at diya.gullapalli@wsj.com

Posted by toughiee at 3:04 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Random Readings

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Labels: Random Readings

Posted by toughiee at 2:05 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Jhunjhunwala's new game is Private Equity

K Yatish - Economictimes.com
Dalal street was never like this — anonymous, faceless fund managers who sit in front of lifeless grey screens and move millions of dollars in and out of the market with the click of a mouse. Up until the advent of the FIIs, it was a place where the market makers were referred to by colourful pseudonyms. It was place where big brokers had distinctive trading styles and clear preferences for certain stocks. It was time when ‘buy bank’ meant buy SBI stock, when ‘sell cement’ meant sell ACC. It was a time when knowing the market meant knowing when Ramjibhai would come and buy in to support Bajaj Auto. It meant you knew the target at which Manekbhai would exit the stock. Legends were made and destroyed. Harshad, Damani, Kayan, Ketan Parekh, Nimish Shah were men who dictated the market. Though times have changed, and today the market movers have been replaced by jargon spewing technical chartists, who look at shoulder and neck patterns to determine when to sell, hold or buy. The market movers of yore have given way to a global mercenary — the omnipotent hedge fund.
And yet in this universe of the anonymous trader there is one man who has carved out an identity of his own. In the cacophony of a trading room, at the peak of market hours, when somebody whispers Rakesh bhaiyya has entered a stock, all ears perk up. Every trader in the room scans his screen to see what’s happening with the stock. There is a sudden urgency to find a research report on the company concerned. And no one rests till they can understand what Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has seen in this hitherto obscure stock. Soon theories are floated, rationale is assigned and tales are woven around Mr Jhunjhunwala’s stock selection. There’s just no denying that like the pied piper, wherever he goes there will be a host of traders following in the hope that they can bag the next ‘chakri’, or multi-bagger.
Bhaiyya is what everyone calls him, out of respect or fear is anyone’s guess. He is not an easy man, has a quick temper that can easily turn into rage. He is tall and well built with a voice so authoritative that it could well belong to an army colonel. Mr Jhunjhunwala is aware of his reputation and some say that he even uses it to his advantage. However, ask Jhunjhunwala and he will tell you that like all good traders, he tries to keeps his trades discreet. He trades on his own screens or with brokers whom he trusts.
Mr Jhunjhunwala is modest about his success and says, “The daily trades made by me are not as big as people make it out to be. In fact it’s not even a noticeable percentage of the daily volumes. It is the foreign funds that control the volumes these days.” The hallway of his office is filled by portraits of legendary traders including George Soros and his 10 commandments for trading and investing. Famous quotations pepper all corners of his office. And he himself has coined some pretty well-known one liners like Jaldi le aur jaldi de — buy fast, sell fast.
And while that might be his best-known quote, the truth is that he can be patient. Very patient. Some of the investments he has made years ago, and continues to hold on to them. If he believes that he can play an active part in changing the future of a company he is willing to spare the time and take a board seat. However, at the end of the day, he is a man who trusts his gut. Investment theory might demand discipline and control for a good trader, but Mr Jhunjhunwala is passionate, impulsive and aggressive. And he is not willing to change that.
Legends evolve over time, and today Mr Jhunjhunwala too, is moving into the world of private equity. Despite four screens on his table, he spends more time and most of his profits investing in unlisted companies. Over the past one year, he has moved his money into 14-15 privately-held companies. Some of which are pure start-ups. So, the big question is — can Mr Jhunjhunwala bring his Midas’ touch into the PE space as well? He thinks he can and is putting his money where his mouth is. In his new avatar, he has hired two consulting whizkids — Manish Gupta and Rajiv Agarwal — to manage his PE investments. It cannot be called a fund as it is part of the overall portfolio of investments owned by Rare Enterprises.
So how much money has he pitched into this arena? Mr Jhunjhunwala is wary at putting a number to his total unlisted company investments. When we push him, he says a conservative estimate would be Rs 300 crore, but it could be as large as Rs 500 crore. And that does not mean that he is done as he says, “I don’t have a target for investment, we just look at the opportunity and the valuation and pick up a substantial stake.”
So how does he structure his PE investments? He says that he would like to take a 10-30% equity stake on an investment ticket of $10 million and more. And any particular sectors that he sees potential in? He says that it’s difficult to peg the sweet spots for his investments, given that they have been made in companies like the school management firm JBCN in Mumbai to a bio-fuel company Nandan Biometrics in Hyderabad. He has invested in Care Hospitals in Hyderabad and in Dharti Dredging & Constructions, which has been in the business for more than 50 years.The list goes on with Mumbai-based KLT Automotive to Pegasus Asset Reconstruction, a company promoted by AK Basu, ex-IDBI, and William DaSilva, ex-SBI Capital Markets.
Most enterpreneurs seek investment from Mr Jhunjhunwala because he can help them take their companies public. But he does not see going public as the end-game. “If the company is good enough then it will go public, but there is no hurry. I don’t have to report to other investors about how my companies are doing.” He is helping his investee companies to recruit professionals, acquire land and get clearances. To him this is more than just a percentage gain, but the opportunity to help entrepreneurs realise their dreams.
Says Mr Jhunjunwala, “When you invest at such an early stage, you develop an emotional attachment to the companies. After all you are working with people. Their dreams and desires are linked with your investment.” If all goes well, Mr Jhunjhunwala might well do something that no other legend of Dalal Street has ever done — become the only ‘bhai’ who has been successful both as a trader as well as a private equity investor. Then he could change to buying quickly and selling slowly.
Additional Reading
  • India is awash in private equity (Fortune)

Posted by toughiee at 10:59 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Random Readings

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Parting Thought:
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Labels: Random Readings

Posted by toughiee at 6:36 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

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