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« Home | UPDATED! (must read!) Problems in accessing blogs » | 'India's not for the faint-hearted' » | Random Readings » | Software: Too much euphoria? » | Investing: Why Value Matters More Than Price » | Market Timing » | Politics of terror! » | Mumbai Blasts: Blood Shortage » | Economy: Politically driven? » | A kitchin in the stock market »

Economy: Fault lines!

Source: EM
Imagine the world as a football, with all the variables affecting it as players. However, while real life football is lucky enough to survive the onslaught of players from just two sides at a time, there are more than a few players (variables) who are kicking around the world (the football) at one go. And the effect - the world does not seem to be going anywhere. In fact, it is hard pressed to survive against the kicks of the many variables, including record high crude prices (no signs of cooling off), tensions in the Middle East, nuclear ambitions of North Korea, rising inflation and interest rates, terrorist attacks and, of course, the occasional natural disasters (Tsunami in Indonesia being the latest).
As for India, apart from the terrorist strikes on Mumbai's suburban railways (that has the ability to dent investors' confidence), there are other disturbing factors that are playing their role, all at the same time. Widening trade account deficit and the consequent weakness of the rupee (thus also affecting inflation from the import side) and the ongoing political turmoil at the Centre, have also depressed sentiment.
Corporate India, however, continues on its march of strong growth, atleast if one were to consider the companies that have announced their June quarter results (for example, Infosys, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto). The topline remains strong for these companies, with some being aided by depreciating rupee and some due to strong volumes. However, on the profitability front, higher employee costs and raw material costs continue to dent margins, though at a marginal pace.
The result season has just begun and we still have to get a clear idea of how things pan out for India Inc. However, till that time, there is a lot to chew for investors (variables mentioned above). With the world getting 'flatter' day-by-day, there is no choice for investors but to factor in all global cues before making investment decisions. Select sectors like pharmaceuticals, telecom and technology, though, still present good long-term stories. However, investors need to look very carefully at the variable called 'valuation', for it has the ability to upset the applecart, even if the stock under consideration has a strong past performance to its credit.
Additional Readings:
  • Buy Venus Remedies: Brics PCG
  • 'Sensex may test previous highs'
  • TCS unlikely to match Infy Q1 show
  • Factors for and against a rate hike on Jul 25
  • Brokers bullish on HCL Tech, HDFC Bank, UTI Bank
  • Paper power: Good times ahead for paper sector
  • Accumulate at 9600-10100 range: Anil Manghnani
  • Sensex likely to test previous highs in 2007: Fullermoney
  • Be stock specific, don't wait for Index levels: Kotak Sec
  • Positive about Goldiam's retail foray: Motilal Oswal Sec
  • Edelweiss: Margin Growth continues at Bajaj Auto
  • SSKI: McDowell Q1FY07 results review
  • SSKI: MTNL - Outperformer
  • HDFC Securities: Accumulate AIA Engg

Additional Reports:

  • Branded Generics Markets - CLSA
  • Reliance Petroleum - Merill Lynch
  • Defeating an impending bear market

Off-Topic Readings:

  • 'Mumbai can be 1930s Shanghai'
  • 'Smoking Kills' on cigarette packs
  • Narayana Murthy's first job was?
  • India Today, Bloomberg tie up for TV
  • NASA scientist offers weather forecasting knowhow to AP
  • Goldman Sachs Vs Goldmansex (diversification by GS?)

Posted by toughiee on Tuesday, July 18, 2006 at 7:31 PM | Permalink

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Compilations

  • Warren Buffett
  • Charlie Munger
  • Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

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  • UPDATED! (must read!) Problems in accessing blogs
  • 'India's not for the faint-hearted'
  • Random Readings
  • Software: Too much euphoria?
  • Investing: Why Value Matters More Than Price
  • Market Timing
  • Politics of terror!
  • Mumbai Blasts: Blood Shortage
  • Economy: Politically driven?
  • A kitchin in the stock market

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