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Stock market history teaches us nothing

“Each age has its peculiar folly, some scheme, project or phantasy into which it is plunged, spurred on either by the love of gain, the necessity of excitement, or the mere force of imitation… Money has often been a cause of the delusion of multitudes. Sober nations have all at once become desperate gamblers and risked almost their existence upon the turn of a piece of paper… Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly and one by one,” wrote Charles Mackay in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, way back in 1852.

Every bull market that leads to a bubble finds its own set of buyers. So it happened in the US as well. Most of the investors had not seen a bear market. The US had been seeing a continuous bull run since 1982 (one or two hiccups not withstanding).

As Mahar writes “As for the old investors who suffered through the crash of 1973-74, by the time the next bull market began eight years later, the majority had retired from the field, so badly burned they would never touch a stock again. As a result, most of the investors, who buoyed the bull market of the nineties had never seen a bear. In 2002, fully 56 percent of those who owned stocks or stock funds had purchased their first shares sometime after 1990, while 30 percent of all equity investors had gotten their feet wet only after 1995”.

Click here for the full story.

Labels: Book Review

Posted by toughiee on Monday, February 12, 2007 at 9:15 PM | Permalink

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