Timing the market, as we all know, is a futile exercise, but a few key takes from a recent Citigroup report may help you strategise on your May move and subsequent plans to optimise your returns.

Markus Rosgen, Elaine Chu and Chris W Leung of Citigroup, on Friday (report) last, advised that if one were to sell towards the end of May, then stay away at least for four months -that is, till the end of September - before returning to the markets. Or endorse the market truism “Sell in May and go away”. While that may well be true elsewhere, Indian investors may be advised to look through some other numbers churned below.

Back to the Citi trio: The Asian region’s (excluding Japan) four-month performance has been the worst between May and September, at -2.9% per year on average from 1990. “Had an investor followed this strategy religiously from 1990 (of selling in May and coming back only by the end of September), the strategy would have yielded a compounded annual growth rate of 11.2%,” said the report. This is against a compounded annual growth rate of 7.1% for a long-only (remaining invested throughout) strategy. “The time to re-introduce risk to an Asian portfolio is in September,” Rosgen, Chu and Leung said, because the four months from September end to January end are historically the best for Asian markets.

“The historic return over the next four months has been 10.2%, the single best four-month return profile available in Asia (ex-Japan),” said the report. The caveat, however, is that this strategy has not worked since 2003, and one wonders about its implications for the current year.

But for someone investing in India, none of this may hold true.

Because data processed from 1992 by Citibank reveals that India has returned an average 7.7% from the end of May to the end of September. Historically, according to the Citigroup report, the worst four months for India have been from the end of February to the end of June, when it has given negative returns of 2.8%. V K Sharma, director and head of research at Anagram Securities, said: “If you are not participating in Indian equity over July and August, then you are missing out on the second and third best months of the year.”

Anagram data said over the last 17 years (from 1990), the Indian markets have given an average return of 3.47% in July and 4.5% in August. Taking returns over a four-month period, the Ahmedabad-based broking house said the June-July-August-September period are the best for Indian equity, followed by November-December-January-February.

“The worst months are March, April, May and October,” adds Sharma. Returning to the original thesis, Citi recommends a sell on banks, other financials, telecoms, consumers and industrials — for those who wish to sell in May and go away.