The "Decoupling Thesis" plunges over the cliff
If a bear market is defined traditionally as a 20% drop from a market peak, then global markets are perilously close to it. The MSCI indices of nine markets in the developed world are trading at 15-19% off the levels they were at three months back. That includes Japan, down 17.6%, and Singapore, down 17.4%, (data for three months to 17 January). The MSCI World index is down 14%.
Emerging markets haven’t escaped the sell-off. The MSCI Emerging Markets index is down 13.58%, but if you calculate the index from the peak reached on 31 October last year, it’s lower by 15%. The Far East countries have fared even worse, with the MSCI EM Far East index down 18.5% in the three months to 17 January. In the middle of this bloodbath, the Indian market has so far been the exception, with MSCI India up 3.46% in the three months to 17 January, although Friday’s dive would have sent us into negative territory. Malaysia, up 4.2% over the same period, is the only other Asian market in positive territory. MSCI China has fallen 26%.